The onset of the Australian summer monsoon (ASM) is marked by a sudden transition from a dry to a wet regime over northern Australia. Knowing the approximate timing of this transition is of great importance for primary producers. In 2019, there was a delay in the transitional rainfall onset by about 20 days compared to the long-term average, contributing to the driest Nov-Dec period on record for northern Australia. Prior to this, the 2019 Indian summer monsoon (ISM, June to September) withdrew more than a month later than usual. This, along with the delayed ASM onset was linked to cooler-than normal eastern Indian Ocean temperatures extending beyond December. The main challenge moving forward is to better understand what drives the seasonal variations in the ISM and ASM, with the strong focus on improving predictability at longer (seasonal) lead times.
This project will delve into the ISM-ASM relationship, in terms of the large-scale drivers that are associated with variations in ASM onset and amplitude, and its connection to the ISM using a variety of observations, reanalyses and climate model simulations. The project will employ the Bureau of Meteorology's latest seasonal climate forecast system (ACCESS-S) and evaluate the ISM-ASM relationship in a seasonal hindcast predictability framework. A possible project extension may include using the recently available CMIP6 model archive to study the ISM-ASM relationship, both from a historical decadal perspective and in future projections. The outcomes from this project will include a comprehensive understanding of the role of oceanic variability in driving monsoon variability and its potential predictability, which will aid the development of more skilful seasonal predictions of the ASM.
Potential research students interested in developing a project proposal in this field are invited to contact us to discuss their ideas. Prior computational knowledge not essential but is desirable.

Professor Roger Stone

• Assoc Prof David Cobon
• Dr Timothy Cowan

• International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences

• Agriculture, Land and Farm Management
• Atmospheric Sciences
• Oceanography

• Doctor of Philosophy (DPHD)
• Master of Research (MRES)