Coffee is one of the most important commodity in the international agricultural trade, playing a crucial role in the economy of several Asian, African, and American countries. The total world production was estimated to more than 143 million 60-kg bags of green coffee beans in 2014/2015, of which 80% were exported.
The coffee industry is significantly influenced by seasonal climate variations, water shortages, and extreme climatic events, especially drought. Cropping systems and management practices (e.g., high input monocultures, natural agroforestry associations, soil conservation practices, irrigation, etc.) also affect the year-to-year variation of coffee production. Moreover, biotic stresses induced by pest and diseases can alter the productivity over several growing seasons. Indeed, some parasites can adapt more quickly to climate change than the perennial host plants and spread into new habitats, causing noticeable yield losses in years of outbreaks if not controlled.
Given the expected increase in global coffee demand and the potential adverse effects of projected climate variability, the success of coffee industry depends heavily on minimising the risks along the supply chain and capitalising on potential opportunities. Advances in seasonal climate forecasts, when integrated with crop production systems, can greatly improve industry preparedness and productivity. Current and expected impacts on Robusta production in vulnerable producing countries need to be assessed and available climate change data and scenarios need to be analysed in order to develop impact scenarios for the coffee sector and support adaptation strategies to changing climate conditions. A prototype integrated modelling approach for Robusta coffee yield forecasting based on a biophysical coffee growth model has been developed by the International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS), USQ, with promising preliminary results.
This research will investigate further improvement of the prototype integrated modelling approach through the embedding of crop management modules under various climate scenarios. The reliability and robustness of the integrated model across different regions in Vietnam and Indonesia also will be assessed for its operationality in changing climate conditions. Hence, it will provide a foundation and add to the knowledge for improved climate risks management in coffee industry.

Professor Shahbaz Mushtaq

• Dr Louis Kouadio
• Professor Roger Stone

• International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences

• Crop and Pasture Production

• Doctor of Philosophy (DPHD)